Android 之父 Andy Rubin:最初的梦想
在偏隐一角的某间 Google 办公室里,两个等人大小的机器人悬空吊在房间一角。
Amazon 已在大胆想象并试验用无人机送快递了,Google 的这个想法又是否太天马行空了呢
Google 的机器人一跃坐上全自动的无人驾驶汽车,带着快递,一溜烟向你的家门口驶去。
在过去半年,Google 不动声色地收购了七家科技公司,旨在打造全新一代的机器人,而这番努力背后的正是 Andy Rubin
——他所打造 Android 系统已在全球智能手机市场里居于统治地位。
对这个项目诸多细节 Google 拒不透露,但光看投资的规模我们就能知道,这绝不是什么玩票项目。
据了解该项目的几位知情人士透露, 就目前而言,Google 的机器人并不瞄准普通消费者,而是把制造型企业当作目标客户(比如仍大量依赖手工装配的电子装配作业),并会同时与 Amazon 在零售业务上展开竞争。举个更具体、现实的例子,现有的供应链,从工厂车间到向消费者配货送货的公司,都可能成为 Google 机器人的服务对象,部分地被它所自动化。
“这是极具潜力的机会。”麻省理工学院数字业务中心 (Center for Digital Business ) 的首席研究科学家 Andrew McAfee 称,“现在的工厂还是那个模样,人在工厂里走来走去,在配送中心提货,躲在食品杂货店后面工作。”
最近开始在市区试验包裹递送的 Google Shopping 服务也可以借这新型机器人完成部分的自动化工作。Google Shopping 已经在参旧金山等地区与 Target, Walgreens 和 American Eagle Outfitters 等公司合作,替它们做送货上门服务。或许会有这么一天,送货上门这门差事不必再依赖人力,通过机器人就自动化地完成了。
“无论哪个 moonshot 项目 (伟大而令人恐惧的创新),时间这个因子你都得考虑进去,” Rubin 说,“我们需要足够长的跑道,以及 10 年的远景。”
Rubin 已经 50 岁了,它的工程师生涯就是从机器人开始的,他也在很长的一段时间里对打造智能机器怀有高度热情。
Rubin 在 1990 年代刚加入苹果公司时,就是一名制造工程师,在此之前,他则在德国光学和精密仪器制造商卡尔蔡司做机器人工程师的工作。
“我把兴趣做成了事业,这世上还有更好的工作吗?你是工程师,你各种鼓捣,然后你就会琢磨:要是为自己造点什么东西出来,你会做什么呢?”” Rubin 说道。
他举了个汽车雨刷的例子:它有足够的“智能”,不需人类操心,遇到雨了自己就能刷起来——像这类系统就是 Rubin 想要实现的。而 Google 联合创始人 Larry Page 所提出的愿景也与之相通,Page 坚信,科技就该为了人类免于单调和重复的工作而部署。
Rubin 是硅谷创业圈的一名老兵了,也当过两回高管。他称自己对机器人的商业化前景的思考已经不止十年了,而直到最近他才发现,新型自动化系统的商业化所需的一系列技术已经成熟了,变革节点已经来到。
今年早些时候,Rubin 从 Google Android 部门负责人的位置上退了下来。接着,他告诉 Sergey Brin 和 Larry Page:开始新冒险的时机已到,并成功说服了他们,为自己的新尝试开出支票。不过,他仍拒绝透露 Google 会为他投入多少。
Rubin 把机器人项目与 2009 年启动的 Google 无人驾驶汽车项目作了比较:“无人驾驶汽车项目刚启动时,就像科幻小说那样遥不可及,但看看现在,已经近在咫尺了。”
他也承认,机器人项目还需要在软件和传感器等地方取得必须的突破,而硬件层面的问题,比如机动性、手和脚的动作,都已经解决了。
Rubin 低调收购了数家在美国和日本的机器人和人工智能初创公司,其中包括 Schaft、Industrial Perception、Meka、 Redwood Robotics、Bot & Dolly、Autofuss,以及 Holomni。
Schaft 是不久前从东京大学出来的一个机器人专家小团队,想要打造一款人形机器人;Industrial Perception 是美国的一家初创公司,他们开发了一套计算机视觉系统和机械臂,用于为卡车装货和卸货;Meka 和 Redwood Robotics 是旧金山的人形机器人和机械手臂的制造商;Bot & Dolly 所开发的机器人摄影系统则在电影《地心引力》里派上了用场,被用于打造电影特效;其关联公司 Autofuss 专注于广告和设计;制造高科技车轮的小型设计公司 Holomni 也被 Google 收入囊中。
把上述这七家公司凑在一起,打造可灵活移动的机器人所需的技术就有指望了,Rubin 表示还会收购更多必要的公司。
和 Google 着眼未来的 X 实验室不同,能早日出售产品是这个机器人项目看重的。Rubin 称,公司还没确定是为它成立一个新的产品组,还是干脆单独成立一家子公司。
在起步阶段,Google 机器人小组会把总部设在 Palo Alto,并在日本开设办公室。除了收购外,Rubin 也已开始招聘机器人专家,并引入 Google 的其他程序员给予协助。
尽管 Google 还未公布长远的机器人计划,但 Rubin 明确指出,机器人科技还没能充分服务于制造业和物流市场,而这是清晰可见的机会。
在 Rubin 看来,现在电子消费品行业之复杂让他备感头疼,而他希望机器人行业会更简单些:“我觉得机器人领域还很新,我们一手造硬件,一手造软件,我们做的是系统,一个团队就能把整套东西给弄懂了。”
Google Puts Money on Robots, Using the Man Behind Android ()
PALO ALTO, Calif. — In an out-of-the-way Google office, two life-size humanoid robots hang suspended in a corner.
If Amazon can imagine delivering books by drones, is it too much to think that Google might be planning to one day have one of the robots hop off an automated Google Car and race to your doorstep to deliver a package?
Google executives acknowledge that robotic vision is a “moonshot.” But it appears to be more realistic than Amazon’s proposed drone delivery service, which Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s chief executive, revealed in a television interview the evening before one of the biggest online shopping days of the year.
Over the last half-year, Google has quietly acquired seven technology companies in an effort to create a new generation of robots. And the engineer heading the effort is Andy Rubin, the man who built Google’s Android software into the world’s dominant force in smartphones.
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The company is tight-lipped about its specific plans, but the scale of the investment, which has not been previously disclosed, indicates that this is no cute science project.
At least for now, Google’s robotics effort is not something aimed at consumers. Instead, the company’s expected targets are in manufacturing — like electronics assembly, which is now largely manual — and competing with companies like Amazon in retailing, according to several people with specific knowledge of the project.
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A realistic case, according to several specialists, would be automating portions of an existing supply chain that stretches from a factory floor to the companies that ship and deliver goods to a consumer’s doorstep.
“The opportunity is massive,” said Andrew McAfee, a principal research scientist at the M.I.T. Center for Digital Business. “There are still people who walk around in factories and pick things up in distribution centers and work in the back rooms of grocery stores.”
Google has recently started experimenting with package delivery in urban areas with its Google Shopping service, and it could try to automate portions of that system. The shopping service, available in a few locations like San Francisco, is already making home deliveries for companies like Target, Walgreens and American Eagle Outfitters.
Perhaps someday, there will be automated delivery to the doorstep, which for now is dependent on humans.
“Like any moonshot, you have to think of time as a factor,” Mr. Rubin said. “We need enough runway and a 10-year vision.”
Mr. Rubin, the 50-year-old Google executive in charge of the new effort, began his engineering career in robotics and has long had a well-known passion for building intelligent machines. Before joining Apple Computer, where he initially worked as a manufacturing engineer in the 1990s, he worked for the German manufacturing company Carl Zeiss as a robotics engineer.
“I have a history of making my hobbies into a career,” Mr. Rubin said in a telephone interview. “This is the world’s greatest job. Being an engineer and a tinkerer, you start thinking about what you would want to build for yourself.”
He used the example of a windshield wiper that has enough “intelligence” to operate when it rains, without human intervention, as a model for the kind of systems he is trying to create. That is consistent with a vision put forward by the Google co-founder Larry Page, who has argued that technology should be deployed wherever possible to free humans from drudgery and repetitive tasks.
The veteran of a number of previous Silicon Valley start-up efforts and twice a chief executive, Mr. Rubin said he had pondered the possibility of a commercial effort in robotics for more than a decade. He has only recently come to think that a range of technologies have matured to the point where new kinds of automated systems can be commercialized.
Earlier this year, Mr. Rubin stepped down as head of the company’s Android smartphone division. Since then he has convinced Google’s founders, Sergey Brin and Mr. Page, that the time is now right for such a venture, and they have opened Google’s checkbook to back him. He declined to say how much the company would spend.
Mr. Rubin compared the effort with the company’s self-driving car project, which was started in 2009. “The automated car project was science fiction when it started,” he said. “Now it is coming within reach.”
He acknowledged that breakthroughs would still be necessary in areas like software and sensors, but said that hardware issues like mobility and moving hands and arms had been resolved.
Mr. Rubin has secretly acquired an array of robotics and artificial intelligence start-up companies in the United States and Japan.
Among the companies are Schaft, a small team of Japanese roboticists who recently left Tokyo University to develop a humanoid robot, and Industrial Perception, a start-up here that has developed computer vision systems and robot arms for loading and unloading trucks. Also acquired were Meka and Redwood Robotics, makers of humanoid robots and robot arms in San Francisco, and Bot & Dolly, a maker of robotic camera systems that were recently used to create special effects in the movie “Gravity.” A related firm, Autofuss, which focuses on advertising and design, and Holomni, a small design firm that makes high-tech wheels, were acquired as well.
The seven companies are capable of creating technologies needed to build a mobile, dexterous robot. Mr. Rubin said he was pursuing additional acquisitions.
Unlike Google’s futuristic X lab, which does research on things like driverless cars and the wearable Google Glass device, the robotics effort — moonshots aside — is meant to sell products sooner rather than later. It has not yet been decided whether the effort will be a new product group inside Google or a separate subsidiary, Mr. Rubin said.
The Google robotics group will initially be based here in Palo Alto, with an office in Japan. In addition to his acquisitions, Mr. Rubin has begun hiring roboticists and is bringing in other Google programmers to assist in the project.
While Google has not detailed its long-term robotics plans, Mr. Rubin said that there were both manufacturing and logistics markets that were not being served by today’s robotic technologies, and that they were clear opportunities.
This is not the first time that Google has strayed beyond the typical confines of a tech company. It has already shaken up the world’s automobile companies with its robot car project. Google has not yet publicly stated whether it intends to sell its own vehicles or become a supplier to other manufacturers. Speculation about Google’s intentions has stretched from fleets of robotic taxis moving people in urban areas to automated delivery systems.
Mr. Rubin said that one of his frustrations about today’s consumer electronics industry was its complexity. He is hoping robotics will be different.
“I feel with robotics it’s a green field,” he said. “We’re building hardware, we’re building software. We’re building systems, so one team will be able to understand the whole stack.”
Correction:
An article on Wednesday about Google’s increasing investment in robotics, including the acquisition of technology companies related to the field, misspelled the name of one such acquisition, a small design firm that makes high-tech wheels. It is Holomni, not Holonomi.
英文原文:nytimes.com
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